The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 12
November 26, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
The Judge started writing this week's case file Monday afternoon, then of course Lamar Jackson made his Monday Night debut then blows the field away, becoming the top scorer of the week and putting up his own career best with a 5 TD performance. However from the Judge's perspective, as incredible as Jackson is, he's a unanimous Top 3 QB and therefore his stats match up with expectations.
Outside of Jackson, this week's top QBs definitely exceeded expectations. The next 5 QBs are not named Mahomes or Watson or Wilson, in fact they are all guys most fantasy owners have shrugged at all season: Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Kyle Allen. Tannehill led the pack with 259 yards and 2 TDs, plus another 2 running, combining for the first 30+ point day of his 7-year career. Darnold also had a career-best fantasy game, crossing 300 yards for the 2nd time this year, passing for 2 TDs and scoring one himself. Winston visited Atlanta and had his first 3-TD day since Week 4, although he still hurts himself by throwing lots of interceptions (he had 2 this week, and 15 over his last 6 games). Mayfield, against the Dolphins, also threw for his first 300-yard day since Week 4, but he had his first 3-TD game of this season which helped him reach a season high in fantasy points. Kyle Allen had thrown 8 INTs over the past 4 weeks, but he avoided throwing any on Sunday, instead throwing 3 TDs for 256 yards for his best fantasy day since he debuted in Week 3.
Needless to say, this crew was not at the top of many fantasy experts' rankings coming into the week, the Judge wants to see if any anticipated a big day from any of them.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Ranked Winston and Mayfield 6th and 7th. They placed Darnold at 15, Tannehill at 19 and Allen at 25.
Huddle
TheHuddle's best call was Sam Darnold at 6th among QB's, his highest ranking of the week. He was one spot below Winston at 5th. Mayfield was ranked 13th, Tannehill was 18th and Allen 21st. They also took the interesting strategy of ranking Lamar Jackson 4th, while nearly everybody else had him in the top spot.
Advice
FFAdvice ranked Winston 5th, with Mayfield 11th. Darnold was 17th, and Tannehill and Allen were #20 and #21
Sharks
Ranked 3 players in the Top 10 -- Winston at 6, Mayfield at 7 and Darnold at 9th. The Sharks were only 1 of 2 experts with 3 of these QBs in their Top 10. They ranked Tannehill 17th and Allen 25th.
CBS
CBS was high on Mayfield, ranking him 6th, 8th and 8th, with Winston not far behind, 7th, 9th, 12th. Tannelhill was around 16, Kyle Allen was off the board on 2 of the 3 sheets and 24th on the 3rd. The CBS experts were mixed on Darnold, Dave Richard placed him 9th but Heath Cummings put him at 21 (Eisenberg put him 13th).
ESPN
ESPN really liked Winston's matchup, ranking him 5th among QBs, but he was the only one among this 5 in their Top 10. Mayfield was ranked 11th, Darnold 15th, Tannehill 16th, and Kyle Allen missed their Top 20 QBs.
Footballers
The Footballers anticipated Mayfield's big day, ranking him a consensus 5th (Mike Wright put him 3rd), and they got Winston right as well, ranking him 7th. They had Darnold down at 16th and Tannehill at 20th, and Allen was at 26.
Sharks
The Sharks thought some other QBs would perform better than most experts, but they still got the gist of the week's performances, ranking Mayfield 9th, Winston 11th and Darnold 13th. Tannehill was at 18 and Kyle Allen 26th.
Sixpack
The Sixpack ranked Winston 6th, then Mayfield 8th. There was a big gap to Darnold and Tannehill at 18 and 19, respectively, Allen was 24th on their list.
FFToday
FFToday placed Winston at 4th, outside of Fulltime (see below), this was the highest ranking of any players among the Top 5 (except for Lamar Jackson of course). They ranked Mayfield 9th and Darnold 12th, also higher than others placed him. Tannehill was 19th and Kyle Allen 21st.
Diehards
The Diehards ranked Winston 6th and Mayfield 7th. Darnold was 16th and Tannehill 19th, and Allen 23rd.
Fantasy
Fulltime had a very interesting take here, they actually ranked Jameis Winston as their #2 QB of the week, but as part of doing so, they pushed Lamar Jackson to #4 (behind Matt Ryan, Winston, Drew Brees). Ranking a guy 4th is certainly still elite status, however virtually every other expert ranked Jackson, the top MVP contender, at #1. Maybe even more interesting, they ranked Darnold at 7, just ahead of Mayfield at 8th. They even ranked Tannehill 12th and Kyle Allen 16th. Every ranking other than Mayfield was significantly higher than any other site. Very impressive, although that is not a surprise given Fulltime's strong takes this year.
SleeperU
Ranked Winston 8th and Mayfield at 13th. Sleeper ranked Darnold at 21 and Tannehill at 24, and Allen missed the Top 30.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge was surprised that, given their seasons so far, that Winston and Mayfield were ranked by most analysts as high as they were. Of course, both were playing against very soft defenses that give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs, which was surely a major influence.
He was also surprised, like last week, at how tightly most of the ranges of these rankings were. As more weeks are played and more data points are available, it does appear that experts are less likely to trust their gut feel and rely more on analytics. There's also the idea that experts become more conservative as the season progresses, because they know a bad call during the final weeks or in the playoffs is more likely to be remembered for potentially costing a reader their season. It's refreshing to see the best predictors of the season so far, TheHuddle and FullTime, to continue making unique rankings and to go against the grain when they feel it is justified. Again this week, they elevated players like Darnold far above other experts who generally overlooked him.