The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 14
December 11, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
2019 has proven to be a year where young quarterbacks have elevated themselves to the ranks of the elite, like Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen, while some older QBs like Brady or Ryan or Rivers have, for the first time, fallen to the middle of the pack. One QB who appeared to be headed to that latter category was Drew Brees, who missed 6 games earlier in the season, and since returning, put up three 3 TD games but also a zero-TD and a 1-TD game. His fantasy output peaked at 24 points in Week 8, and was coming off an 11-point day (184 yards, 1 TD), heading to play against the stout San Francisco defense. But instead of struggling, Brees exploded for 6 total touchdowns (5 pass, 1 rush) in this terrific 48-46 shootout, racking up 40 fantasy points. It was just the 3rd 40-point day from Brees this decade and the 4th 40-point day from any QB this season.
Another QB the Judge spotlighted recently was Jameis Winston, who had a relatively big day along with some other unheralded QBs in Week 12. But this week, he had the best fantasy day of his 5-year career, and 2nd best behind Brees this week. Winston tossed 4 TDs and ran one in himself while leading the Bucs with 456 yards to a comeback vistory against Indianapolis. He may have even outscored Brees if not for 3 picks, maintaining his spot as the QB with the most INTs (by a lot, Winston's 23 are 7 more than Mayfield in 2nd place).
And what about the 3rd QB this week, the only other to exceed 30 points -- the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. Mitch had his best game of the season last week against Detroit, but this week he one-upped himself. He threw for 244 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT), but he also ran 10 times for 63 yards and a TD. His previous rushing high of the season was just 18 yards. His 32 point total was the best of his career, except for a spectacular 6-TD day in Week 4 last year.
The Judge also wants to acknowledge Zach Ertz, who led all TEs this week. It's no surprise that Ertz was the leading TE, as he is solidly among the league elite, but he did score his best fantasy game of the year and 3rd-best TE performance of the season. But the dramatic way Ertz did it, and during most leagues' playoffs, was extraordinary. Ertz didn't really get going until very late -- he caught the tying TD from Carson Wentz with 1:56 left in regulation, then the winning TD in overtime. Ultimately, he finished with 9 catches for 91 yards and 2 TDs, good for 25 points (using a 1/2 PPR system). More importantly, one of the playoff games in the Judge's primary fantasy league was a tight matchup coming into Monday Night's Eagles-Giants faceoff, with the leading player (who was the league's scoring leader) needing to fade a big day from Ertz. For 58 minutes he appeared to have the victory, but the late TD was the killer, denying this owner a trip to the fantasy Super Bowl next week.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
Because we are looking primarily at quarterbacks this week, where there is less ranking volatility than at other positions, the summary of weekly rankings looks like this:
4for4
Their non-consensus pick was Winston, who they ranked 9th among QBs, a little lower than most and slightly outside "must-start" territory.
Huddle
Another great week of predictions by TheHuddle, as they placed Winston #2 among QBs, which is exactly where he landed. Further, they ranked Mitch Trubisky at #15, 5 spots higher than any other site and the only site ranking him anywhere near consideration for starting (or picking up off waivers). They ranked Ertz a bit low, at 8th, but they were correct until the final 2 minutes and it's unlikely an Ertz owner would have benched him despite this ranking.
Advice
Were within consensus on most players this week.
Sharks
Ranked Winston 4th, a solid "must-start" position.
CBS
Interestingly, CBS had a rare week of internal consensus, as all 3 analysts ranked Trubisky at exactly #20. Somewhat impressive, given the average ranking for him was lower, around 25. Their Brees rankings were all lacking any surprise, while the 3 CBS analysts ranked Winston #9, #10 and #11, all lower than the average. Dave Richard ranked Zach Ertz as the #1 TE.
ESPN
The ESPN group was more positive than most on Brees, ranking him 15th overall, but individually, as high as 13th. On the other hand, their thinking on Winston was the opposite, ranking him 11th overall, without a single individual ESPN analysts ranking him in single digits. ESPN lists just 20 QBs, so Trubisky didn't hit their site.
Footballers
They were one of 3 sites to rank Ertz as the #2 TE (though all but 2 sites had him in their Top 5). They did place Brees 20th, a bit lower than the consensus.
Sharks
The Sharks also ranked Ertz 2nd, and they were slightly above consensus on Brees (16th). They had the lowest ranking for Winston however, at 11th.
Sixpack
Mostly with consensus on all their picks this week.
FFToday
Had a good week -- FFToday was one of 3 sites to rank Jameis Winston as the #2 QB, and then they also had Ertz #2 and Brees a bit above-average at 16.
Diehards
Mostly even with consensus this week.
Fantasy
This was an interesting week for Fulltime, coming into the week as the most accurate site. They definitely did not follow consensus on Drew Brees, unfortunately they made a rare mis-judgment by ranking him exceptionally low at 29th, which was 9 spots lower than any other site. They were also less impressed with Trubisky than others, ranking him 30th, although this wasn't too far below the consensus, especially compared to their prediction about Brees. On the plus side, they did (along with TheHuddle and FFToday) rank Winston 2nd, the highest position. As the Judge stated on TheHuddle, ranking Ertz somewhat low (8th) was still generally a starting recommendation and unlikely to sway any Ertz owners to bench him.
SleeperU
Was more positive than most on Brees, at 15th that was the highest ranking (tied with ESPN). The rest of SleeperU picks were on consensus.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge was certainly surprised to see how low Brees was ranked by everyone, without any outliers moving him up to the Top 10 at least. Sure, he hasn't looked all that great this year, while other quarterbacks have excelled, but this is still Drew Brees. The primary excuse, most likely would be that even if Brees was playing better, the tough 49ers D would be an unlikely opponent against which to break out. Of course, that's exactly what happened, which surely threw a loop to many fantasy owners during their playoff weeks. The Trubisky ranking is not very surprising, as he has been a disappointment for most of the year, although the sites that did note a potential upswing, especially TheHuddle, deserve a lot of credit for breaking from consensus. Ertz being ranked in the Top 5 but nearly everyone is no surprise, as he is obviously an elite TE, Wentz's favorite target, and was the 4th-best fantasy TE coming into the week (he has since moved to 2nd, surpassing Darren Waller and Mark Andrews with Monday's huge night). Finally there's Winston, really the only player this week with a lot of dissenting opinions. While about half the sites ranked him between 8th and 11th, opening the door for Winston owners to consider other options (exactly what happened to the Winston owner in the Judge's main league, as that owner started Wentz instead), 3 sites promoted him to #2 QB (behind only the superb Lamar Jackson), undoubtably suggesting must-start stauts, and exactly the position Winston actually landed.