The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 15
December 17, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
Occasionally circumstances fall right into place around a certain guy, opening up the opportunity for him to emerge from obscurity into greatness. That happened for two NFL gentlemen this week, Tampa Bay WR Breshad Perriman and Arizona RB Kenyan Drake. The Bucs had already lost Mike Evans due to injury and Chris Godwin was also sidelined, leaving dynamic QB Jameis Winston (who had another fantastic game, 458 yards + 4 TDs) in need of a new target. Perriman only had 5 catches, but 3 of them were for TDs and he totalled 113 yards, on his way to 32 fantasy points (1/2 PPR), good for the #1 spot among WRs this week. Drake, who was traded from Miami earlier this year, came into the game with just 1 TD all year, scored 4 times Sunday and racked up 137 yards, good for 38 fantasy points.
The Fantasy Judge loves identifying fantasy experts who foresaw big breakout performances from underappreciated players. Perriman and Drake certainly fit that description. But both were so overlooked, there's simply no way to expect anybody anticipated performances like the ones we saw Sunday. Drake's debut performance with Arizona in Week 9 was strong, 110 + 1 TD, but he had not scored since and his highest yardage total was just 67 yards. Through the first 13 weeks, Perriman had just 1 TD all season, then he caught the game winner a week ago, and now 3 this week.
Drake was ranked between #20 and #29 by every analyst that the Judge follows, mostly between #20 and #25. And Perriman was ranked lower than #40 by all the analysts, with 2 exceptions, noted below.
After Drake, the best RB days came from Christian McCaffrey (175 total yards, 2 TDs, 8 catches) and the Eagles' Miles Sanders (172 total yards, 2 TDs, 6 catches). McCaffrey is the unanimous #1 ranked RB. The Judge doesn't deny his greatness, but comparing his rankings among various analysts is a moot point, as he is #1 everywhere. Sanders, however, is a surprise, this was his first 100-yard rushing game of the year and he had just 3 TDs so far this year.
Julio Jones also had a spectacular performance, just 0.2 points behind Perriman (1/2 PPR) with 13 cathces for 134 yards and 2 TDs. Of course, that second TD came with 5 seconds left in the game and required a reversal of the on-the-field call that he did not cross the end zone. Typical Jones day, perhaps? Actually, Jones came into Sunday's game with a 9-game streak without a score, and only two 100-yard games during that span. Sunday was absolutely Jones's best game of this season, and best since 2017. While Jones is easily considered an elite WR, his scoring drought and less-than-typical yardage numbers has caused him to slip among fantasy rankings.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Ranked Sanders 19th among RBs and Jones 10th among WRs, both of which were right about the average rankings.
Huddle
They were the only site to rank Miles Sanders in their Top 10 (at #10). However they also placed Jones lower than anyone, ranked 21st. TheHuddle did make an amazing prediction, going far out on a limb to rank Perriman at 15, while every other analyst, except one, had him in the 40s or 50s. TheHuddle subscribers who found him on the waiver wire or deep on their bench, were very richly rewarded.
Advice
They ranked Sanders #24, tied for the lowest placement, but they also ranked Jones at #7, tied for the highest placement.
Sharks
Sanders 18th, Jones 11th
CBS
Two of the CBS analysts ranked Sanders reasonbly highly, at 12 and 15, but that was offset by a 25th rank by Dave Richard. Mr. Richard also dragged down the CBS consensus on Jones, ranking him 11th, vs 6 and 9 by the other two analysts.
ESPN
Ranked Sanders 24th, tied with TheFantasyFootballAdvice for the lowest rank. They placed Jones 8th.
Footballers
Middle of the road -- Sanders 19th, Jones 9th
Sharks
A little less optimistic about Sanders than most, they had him 22nd. Jones was ranked 8th.
Sixpack
Placed Jones 7th, a three-way tie with TheFantasyFootballAdvice and SleeperU for the highest ranking. Sanders was at 19.
FFToday
Besides TheHuddle, they were the most optimistic about Sanders, ranking him 11th. Jones was ranked 10th. FFToday was the other site to elevate Perriman above the 40s, as they had him 29th. Pretty nice job.
Diehards
Sanders rank was 17th, Jones was 10th
Fantasy
Another site that was high on Sanders, as they ranked him 12th, just one spot behind FFToday and 2 behind TheHuddle. Like TheHuddle, Jones was not ranked among their elite WRs, Fulltime placed him 14th.
SleeperU
Had a good week, ranking Sanders 14th, better than most, and ranking Jones 7th, which was tied for the highest placement.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge was somewhat surprised to see the resiliancy of Julio Jones' rankings. As great as Jones is, there's no question he has had difficulty scoring and putting up stats typical of his Hall of Fame career. Seeing him still listed in the Top 10 of multiple ranking lists was higher than anticipated.
Opinions regarding Miles Sanders were like a bellwether of the analysts' season so far. The leading analysts, TheHuddle and Fulltime, correctly ranked him high. FFToday, whose predictions have been quite strong the past few weeks, also ranked him highly. Meanwhile many of the sites who tend to be middle of the pack, who are less likely to make risky or bold predictions, were the ones who unremarkably placed him near the consensus.