The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 16
December 25, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
For most players, their fantasy league's season concluded either this past Sunday (Week 16) or the Sunday prior (Week 15), making these weeks either the Super Bowl or championship playoff weeks. Start/sit decisions are vitally important, as the stakes are higher and one bad choice can be the difference between hoisting a chmpionship trophy and falling short, as most fantasy players have seen, or have expereinced themselves.
For leagues who played their Super Bowl this week, the MVP's were the Giants' tandem of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones. Barkley had the best game of his career and set highs in multiple categories, as well as for the entire league in 2019. His 189 yards rushing was a career high, and 2nd best of any RB this season (Fournette had 225). Combined with 90 receiving yards, and Barkley's 279 total scrimmage yards was the league best (for RB and WR/TE) in 2019. He also scroed twice (1 rush, 1 rec) for a total of 42 points, the 3rd best total by any RB this season. Barkley struggled to live up to preseason expectations (where he was a top 3 overall pick by virtually all publications) for much of the season, including missing 4 weeks to injury, and scoring only 3 TDs all season, through Week 14. However, last week against Miami, he rushed for 112 and scored twice, and added 313 receiving yards. Doing so ensured Barkley would regain elite positioning among fantasy experts, and his game against Washington confirmed his elevation was not an aberration.
Normally the Judge would not consider a player like Barkley for comparing analysts, because he is unanimously ranked as an elite "must-start" by everybody. Whether he's ranked 3rd or 5th is mostly irrelevant, if you own Barkley, you're starting him no matter what. This is the same reason Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas, etc. rarely appear among the Judge's verdicts, because reviewing those players doesn't help to differentiate the experts. Barkley's performance, however, was so noteworthy and so much better than anyone else (2nd best non-QB was Kenyan Drake, 10 full points behind, and who the Judge looked at just last week), and during many leagues' Super Bowl, that he felt is was important to note.
Despite Barkley's massive success on the ground (or maybe because of it), his teammate Daniel Jones was also able to post monster numbers, throwing for 352 yards and 5 TDs against the Redskin defense, with the final one being the overtime game-winner. Jones had stepped aside for two weeks to allow Eli Manning to have a curtain call, but was named the starter on Friday. Jones had thrown for 4 TDs twice this season, but never before had 5, and his 352 yards was also his highest. His total of 35 points was his best scor, edging out (by one point) his debut in Week 3 where he threw for 2 TDs and ran 2 in himself.
The top fantasy wide receiver of the week was involved in an overtime game, as the Bengals, incredibly, came back from 28-6 mid-3rd, and 35-12 in the 4th quarter to tie the score with 29 seconds left (then the Dolphins won in OT). However Tyler Boyd did not touch the ball in OT, instead, he collected the majority of his 128 yards and 2 TDs during the comeback. Boyd's 128 yards were his highest since Week 3 last year, and this was his first 2-TD game since Week 6 of last year. He had 3 TDs on the year, coming into the game. His 29-point outing was the best of his career and the best by any RB/WR/TE on the Bengals (including Joe Mixon) since John Ross scored 31 in the season's opening week.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
4for4 gave above-average rankings for Jones (21st QB) and Boyd (17th WR). Barkley was ranked 5th among RBs.
Huddle
TheHuddle had a mixed performance. They were tied for the 2nd-highest ranking on Jones, at 16th. However they passed over Boyd, ranking him 25th, which was one of the lower rankings we saw. The Judge agrees that the Bengal offense is mostly one that fantasy owners want to avoid, but other analysts did a better job of seeing merit in placing Boyd among their Top 20 WRs. Two weeks ago, TheHuddle swapped positions with Fulltime on the Judge's season-long scoreboard, finally taking the top spot. But the strong call on Jones will likely ensure that TheHuddle holds onto its lead as the season-long champion.
Advice
Ranked Jones at 24 among QBs, right around the average, but they positioned Boyd at 30th among WRs, which was the lowest among any expert. They ranked Barkley 4th.
Sharks
DraftSharks closed the season strongly, with a strong ranking for Jones, at 18th, which was among the highest. They ranked Barkley 3rd among RBs and had Boyd 11th among WRs, which was 4 spots higher than any other analyst. The Judge also notes they were one of just 3 sites to rank Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was the 3rd-best QB of the week (behind Jones and Andy Dalton) in their Top 10.
CBS
CBS's 3 analysts only publish their Top 24 QB's each week, and Jones only made the list on two of them, at 21 and 23. He missed the board on Dave Richard's call, which isn't a huge surprise since we saw multiple rankings in the high 20s and even 30s. Their Barkley rankings were interesting, as Jamey Eisenberg ranked him 2nd, which was the highest (tied with Fulltime) seen, Richard had him 5th, but Heath Cummings ranked him 11th, far lower than any other composite or individual analyst. Boyd was the one player they agreed upon, and correctly, as they ranked him 13th, 15th and 16th, all of which were quite high.
ESPN
Daniel Jones just made ESPN's rankings, at 19th, as they only publish 20 QBs. They ranked Barkley 3rd overall, with Matthew Berry and Tristan Cockroft individually ranking him 2nd. The composite ranking for Boyd was 17th, with Matthew Berry ranking him 12th.
Footballers
Barkley - 4, Jones - 28, Boyd - 20
Sharks
FantasySharks gave Jones the lowest rank of any expert (33rd), but they did manage to place Boyd within their Top 20, at 18. They ranked Barkley 3rd.
Sixpack
Had Jones 29th and Boyd 26th, both below average, and Barkley 4th.
FFToday
FFToday has been on a terrific roll the last few weeks, and that continued, due to their ranking of Jones at #16, tied with TheHuddle for the 2nd-highest spot. They also had Boyd at 19th. Also, like DraftSharks, they ranked Fitzpatrick inside their Top 10.
Diehards
The Diehards ranked Boyd 28th, lower than all but one other expert. Their rankings for Barkley (4th) and Jones (23rd) were right around the average.
Fantasy
Fulltime and TheHuddle have been battling each other for the top spot on the Judge's scoreboard for most of the year. Both sites deserve a great deal of credit for some very bold predictions that proved correct. This week, they were the only site to place Barkley 2nd (nobody ranked him #1), but as the Judge stated, there's not much differentiation between 2 and 5 or 6. We do credit Fulltime for their correct analysis of Barkley prospects against the Redskins, however. In addition, they ranked Jones 14th, two spots higher than any other site. They ranked Boyd 22nd.
SleeperU
Ranked Barkley #4 and Boyd #26. They ranked Eli Manning #24, instead of Jones (The Fantasy Judge recorded expert rankings early Saturday morning, prior to the Saturday tripleheader). The Judge expects the experts to be on top of all news developments around the league, hopefully they substituted Jones in at some point on Saturday.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
This was certainly an interesting fantasy playoffs, with players who may have frustrated their owners for much of the season, like Julio Jones, Drew Brees, and Barkley, re-emerging during these key Sundays. It may have been too late for their owners, but those who did reach the playoffs through working the waiver wire and smart sit/start decision, likely saw great success.
As stated earlier, the Fantasy Judge determined Saquon Barkley's performance to be worthy of inclusion in this week's veridct, although it provided little in the way of differentiation. The expert opinions on Boyd and Jones were more useful in that regard.
Because few leagues continue to compete in Week 17, due to pre-(real)-playoff resting, the Judge will not publish a Week 17 verdict, which means this is the conclusion of the 2019 season. The Judge thanks the readers for their support, and the fantasy experts for the work studying and providing opinions, good and bad, throughout the season.
The Fantasy Judge wants to congratulate the experts with superior accuracy scores over the course of the season. The top sites overall were TheHuddle, FulltimeFantasy and ESPN. FFToday did very well, especially the last few weeks, and 4for4 was solid all season long. Of course every site had a few occasions when some bold predictions fell flat, but the Judge notes that the sites which made more of those bold predictions generally ended up at the top. Sites who were middle-of-the-road most weeks, with players adjusted just a few spots from the overall consensus (which is actually a good strategy to win the FantasyPros accuracy contest), got few opportunities to really stand out with a unique, confident prediction. The Judge also notes that the sites which weren't afraid to make bolder predictions also seemed to be more prepared, more in-the-know, and more leading edge than sites who usually agreed with consensus, which actually felt like a lazy effort much of the time. This was confirmed again this week, where the sites who have demonstrated their insight, again made very strong calls on Daniel Jones, who obviously exceeded all expectations, but who showed that certain sites are paying more attention than others. This has been an interesting first season of the Fantasy Judge and hope to continue to spotlight the best fantasy experts in 2020!