The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 2
September 17, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
While Melvin Gordon has been holding out, San Diego's Austin Ekeler has seized his opportunity so well, he was the leading RB in Week 1. In Week 2 he was a bit less prolific, scoring a single TD vs 3 in opening week, but was still 5th or 6th in weekly scoring (depending on PPR status) among RBs and maintained his overall season lead in fantasy points. But some experts have been treating Ekeler as little more than a fill-in until Gordon returns, hesitant to recommend him as an RB1, even tough he averaged 5.2 yards per carry last year! Which experts failed to predict Ekeler would start the season as an elite, must-start running back?
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Listed Ekeler 8th among RBs
Huddle
Ranked Ekeler 4th, the highest position among all experts. We do note, however, that The Huddle placed Ezekiel Elliott 20th (actual: 6) and Dalvin Cook 25th (actual: 1st)!
Advice
Ranked Ekeler 12th among RBs
Sharks
Ranked Ekeler 9th among RBs
CBS
All 3 CBS experts upgraded Ekeler to 7th or 6th.
ESPN
ESPN consensus placed Ekeler 9th. Matthew Berry was most bearish, ranking him 12th.
Footballers
The Footballers consensus had Ekeler just outside the top 10, at 11th. Mike had him at 8th, however.
Sharks
Listed Ekeler 15th, just behind Kerryon Johnson (actual: 10th) and James White (actual: 24th)
Sixpack
Predicted Ekeler at 10th.
FFToday
Listed Ekeler 10th, one spot ahead of Zeke Elliott.
Diehards
The Diehards didn't buy in to a positive story for Ekeler, ranking him 17th.
Fantasy
9th, two spots ahead of Dalvin Cook (actual: 1st). Fulltime was most bullish on Aaron Jones ( 2nd in RB points this week), ranking him 16th, while most sites had him outside their top 20, and in some cases, 30+.
SleeperU
ranked Ekeler 10th.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
Ekeler's 5.2 YPC was over 106 carries, not just a tiny sample. He also gained 404 yards on 39 catches in 2018, so he totaled 958 yards from scrimmage. 1000 yards used to be an accomplishment. Gordon announced his holdout prior to training camp so it isn't like Ekeler just stepped into the role and is still adjusting. It was pretty clear he'd be the starter for a while and so far he looks and feels right at home. From an analyst standpoint, perhaps many felt the talent gap between Gordon and Ekeler was larger than reality. We just had a year where unheralded James Conner filled in admirably for Le'Veon Bell, to the extent that Conner was listed as a first-round draft pick by many experts. Yet, they haven't expressed a similar belief that Ekeler could be close to Gordon. Surely sentiment will change after two very strong weeks, but the Judge likes sites that anticipate big performances, not reacts to them after the fact.