The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 4

The highlight of the week among running backs was Nick Chubb breaking off an 88-yard run, the longest play from scrimmage so far this year. Not only was Chubb virtually untouched, there was nobody – blockers or defenders – even in the picture once Chubb crossed the 50-yard line. This play locked down the win for the Browns and boosted Chubb to the #1 fantasy RB this week. But nullify this specific play, and Chubb still had 95 scrimmage yards + 2 TDs. Baltimore isn't a bad defense but its defensive stats are slightly deceiving because their first two opponents were Miami and Arizona, not the most dynamic of offenses. The other story of the week was Wayne Gallman, stepping in for injured Giants superstar Saquon Barkley. Everyone was keeping track of this game (something that hasn't said about the Giants in a while) to see how Gallman would fare, as well as whether QB "Danny Dimes" could repeat his spectacular debut performance. While Jones, unsurprisingly, regressed a bit from a statistical standpoint (the Giants won 24-3, Jones's performance was fine), Gallman played well, 63+1 on the ground and 55+1 on 6 catches. Unfortunately, most experts did not trust Gallman and kept him out of their RB2 lineups.

The Judge recognizes that ranking Nick Chubb 11th doesn't seem much different than say, 8th or 9th. But it indicates the analysts' attention to detail and tendency to recognize the opportunity for breakout performances, even if it isn't guaranteed or it comes from a player who isn't among the elite. We know Chubb is pretty good, nobody anticipated a 3 touchdown day from him, but some analysts recognized his matchup as a better-than-typical situation and upgraded Chubb on that basis. The Gallman scenario demonstrates some of the underside of the industry, that a lot of analysts are themselves relying on others to evaluate players and shape opinions. Gallman was an unknown factor, injected into a scenario due to injury to a star. The Giants were already divisive, given Daniel Jones debut just the week before. If anything, opinions should have been widely varied on Gallman's potential, from "he's in a great spot" (terrible Wash D, no RB-by-committee, gameplan for rookie QB focused on the run) to "this guy sucks" (3.5 YPC avg last year, gameplan would be built around Jones' arm). Instead, except for a few positive outliers, almost every analyst ranked Gallman right around 22, five of which placed him there *exactly*. This isn't a coincidence, this is looking at other expert rankings, then taking the safe route and matching those predictions (maybe moving up or down 2 spots). It is much safer to place an X-Factor like Gallman 22nd, same as ESPN, than it is to immediately place him in your Top 10 and possibly look ridiculous. But the guys at Fulltime Fantasy did exactly that, and their readers were heavily rewarded, while readers of most other sites watched Gallman rack up points sitting on their bench. A final point about Dalvin Cook: the Judge himself benched Adam Thielen the week after a 2-TD game. The Bears defense is simply that good right now, that every opponent should be an automatic downgrade. This isn't rocket science. It also won't go on indefinitely, but presently Chicago is the best defense. The Judge understands dropping Cook out of the top 10 would have been quite risky, and Cook did salvage a late TD, but this was very close to being a totally predictable, sub-5 point output while many experts had Cook ranked as high as 4th.