The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 5
October 6, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
Week 5 was full of huge performances, perhaps most surprisingly, Will Fuller's 217 + 3td stat line. Even the crotchety Fantasy Judge finds it difficult to admonish fantasy experts who didn't see that coming. However, some did actually anticipate a big day and the Judge will offer congratulations. But first, we're going to focus on Packers RB Aaron Jones and Viking WR Adam Theilen. (Why doesn't the Judge focus on McCaffrey's 237 total yards + 3 TD? As awesome as McCaffrey's day was, he's ranked in the Top 3 by virtually every analyst, no McCaffrey owner would have even considered sitting him)
Jones had a strong Week 2 performance (150 scrimmage yards + 1 TD) but his yardage numbers have fallen precipitously since – just 23 total yards then 58 last week. Jones did score 3 times in those 2 games, however, keeping his fantasy output relatively strong. Some fantasy experts are high on Jones due to his ability to score touchdowns even on limited rushing days, others focus on the yardage numbers and have slid Jones down their rankings. Today, the bulls definitely won out, as Jones gained a total of 182 yards and scored 4 TDs, against a pretty good Dallas defense (7th in ypg through 4 weeks).
Meanwhile in Minnesota, Adam Theilen was all over the news this week feuding with his quarterback Kirk Cousins, as the Vikings are averaging just 169 passing yards per game, 2nd-worst in the league (after the Jets). Theilen's season best is just 5 catches for 75 yards but last week he was really stuffed by the Bears D, with just 2 catches for only 6 yards. Theilen called Cousins out and actually managed to get an apology from him that wrapped up with: "We want to, we need to, I need to get him more opportunities. Get him the football." Cousins delivered on his word, hooking up with Theilen 7 times for 130 and 2 TDs.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
ranked Jones 12th, outside "must-start" status, and placed Theilen 13th, the approximate median among the experts.
Huddle
Ranked Jones 14th, significantly up from last week's 29 but certainly not must-start. They ranked Theilen 8th, specifically noting "Theilen was vocal and likely to be force-fed." And the Judge also commends TheHuddle for ranking Fuller 17th, one of only three sites placing him in the top 25, while others had him in the deep 30's or 40's.
Advice
Aaron Jones was ranked 16th. They were stronger with the WRs, ranking Theilen 8th.
Sharks
Sharks loved Jones's prospects, ranking him 6th, noting that he would likely stay relevant while backfield-mate Jamaal Williams sits post-concussion. They weren't nearly as high on Theilen, placing him 20th.
CBS
ranked Jones 18th, 11th and 9th (Cummings), so 2 of their 3 had him right around must-start status. They were all over the place on Theilen, with Eisenberg raising him to 7th, while the other experts had him 14th and 22nd.
ESPN
ESPN's consensus ranking for Jones was #14. 5 of their 6 experts placed him between 13 and 15. They liked Theilen, ranking him a consensus 10th.
Footballers
Placed Jones 13th among RB prospects, and Theilen 12th among WRs.
Sharks
The Judge continues to be baffled by FantasySharks' contrast between their writeups, which are insightful and often accurate, and their actual rankings, which have unfortunately been quite poor. This week, they wrote that Jones is an "automatic start" due to Williams' and Davante Adams' injuries but they ranked him 19th, at the bottom of their 4th tier of RBs. They also wrote that Will Fuller was "overdue for an eruption" and "this is as good a week as any to start him" but ranked him 37th (not the lowest ranking). They ranked Theilen 13th.
Sixpack
Ranked Jones 17th overall, with no outliers who had him any higher than 15th. Theilen was a consensus 11th, with site owner Joe Bond the least optimistic among their individual experts.
FFToday
Not their best week. Ranked Jones 25th. Also ranked Theilen 25th.
Diehards
Placed Jones at #17. Better on Theilen at 10
Fantasy
Fulltime were last week's heroes, being the only site to place Wayne Gallman in the top 10. Fulltime had a repeat performance, ranking Will Fuller 13th among WRs this week. Similar to Gallman, Fulltime was the primary outlier on Fuller, higher than everyone else. In the Judge's primary league, the Fuller owner made a Sunday-morning change, benching Fuller in favor of Sterling Shepard. Had this owner read Fulltime (or TheHuddle, above), Fuller's 46 points (½ PPR scoring) would have counted. FullTime's opinion of Jones was unspectacular, at 15th, but they liked Theilen chances, ranking him 10th.
SleeperU
SleeperU didn't anticipate anything special for Jones, ranking him 20th. Theilen was ranked 11th.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge notes that this was a difficult week to pin down which players to investigate. Amari Cooper had his biggest yardage week of his career plus 2 TDs, and some experts had placed Cooper outside their top 20, which would have been disastrous for owners (SleeperU had him 5th). Matt Ryan had his best game of the year, right when many experts were losing faith, while Patrick Mahomes disappointed (on a relative basis) for the 2nd straight week. But Theilen and Cousins (and Stefon Diggs) were the lead story among football analysts this week, with the idea of cutting Cousins altogether being seriously discussed. To redeem himself and Theilen the very next game was worthy of the Judge's attention. And Aaron Jones was simply spectacular, 4 TDs in the national afternoon game (with only one concurrent game) meant that plenty of people saw Jones's performance and Dallas's 2nd half comeback attempt.