The Judge's Verdict:
football 2019 Week 7
October 20, 2019
CASE SUMMARY:
Aaron Rodgers. Heard of him? He just had the best fantasy day of any QB so far this season against Oakland. 429, 5 TDs, plus another touchdown he ran in. Perfect QB Rating. You would think a sure Hall of Famer would be on everybody's must-start list, but Rodgers has struggled this year, and coming into Week 7, his average of 15.6 fantasy points per game was 16th in the league, behind Jacoby Brissett, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold. He only had one 20+ point day before this week. So the Fantasy Judge will be looking for the experts who ranked Rodgers among the elite must-starters, but who previously downgraded him, signalling that simply starting Rodgers every week was not a championship-winning strategy.
The biggest RB performances came from backups Chase Edmonds (126 + 3TDs, 24 rec'v) and Latavius Murray (119 + 2, 31 rec'v). The Fantasy Judge gets his info from experts as late as Saturday in most cases, after Alvin Kamara was ruled out (David Johnson started his game). Some experts adjusted rankings to account for Murray's increased role, although given that he was facing the Bears' excellent defense, some were still wary of his upside. With Johnson listed as the starter, it would have been extremely difficult to anticipate Edmonds getting the bulk of carries for Arizona.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Ranked Rodgers 10th among QBs this week. In Week 5, where Rodgers had his weakest fantasy game of the season (against Dallas, 238 yards, no TDs), 4for4 ranked him 11th. They ranked Murray 17th, enough for a RB2 spot in most leagues.
Huddle
Big upgrade for Murray, ranking him 9th among RBs. The next-highest site ranking was 17th, so a very good job by The Huddle. Ranked Rodgers 13th, noting the Packers injury issues as reason for concern. However they had him all the way down at #20 two weeks ago.
Advice
Ranked Rodgers 10th among QBs this week, as opposed to 11th 2 weeks ago (Week 5). Didn't see a big day for Murray, ranking him 21st.
Sharks
Ranked Rodgers 13th this week, same position as two weeks ago. Murray was ranked 24th among RBs.
CBS
Missed the boat on Rodgers, ranking him 14th, 14th and 15th. In Week 5, he was slightly higher, at 13th, 13th, 15th. Opinions on Murray were mixed, Heath Cummings upgraded him to 11th, the others placed him 14th and 22nd, but the consensus appears around mid/late teens.
ESPN
ESPN's consensus ranking of Rodgers was 8th this week, 2nd-highest among all the experts, while in Week 5, he was their 11th-ranked QB. However they placed Latavius Murray 25th even after the news that Kamara would be out.
Footballers
Ranked Rodgers 10th among QBs, and had him at 12th in Week 5. Did not appear to react to Latavius Murray, ranking him 27th.
Sharks
Fantasy Sharks, you have confused the Judge once again. You wrote "we are still going to start
Sixpack
The consensus ranking was 9th, with individuals varied between 7 and 10. Exactly the same in Week 5. Ranked Murray 30th, though one individual analyst (Richard Savill) had him 11th.
FFToday
Ranked Rodgers 13th, with a big red downgrade arrow. He was ranked 9th two weeks ago. Murray was the 25th-ranked RB.
Diehards
Placed Rodgers 10th among QBs this week. He was also ranked 10th in Week 5. Mentioned Murray waould be starting but had him 33rd.
Fantasy
Fulltime has had some terrific prognostications lately, including an amazing call on Stefon Diggs last week. But they ranked Rodgers a mediocre 12th. This was 2 spots ahead of 14th, where they had in Week 5. Murray was ranked 17th, a solid RB2 spot.
SleeperU
\"Smitty\" made the best call on Rodgers this week, ranking him 6th. But he's actually been far more bullish on Rodgers than his outcomes have suggested, as he was ranked 3rd among QBs two weeks ago. Since the start of the season, Smitty has ranked Rodgers 8th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 6th and 6th. No doubt Rodgers boosters loved his results this week but they've been suffering through a lot of pain and disappointment, as Rodgers clearly has not been among the top 5-6 QBs at any point this season. Let's forget about Murray (ranked 45th).
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
To most experts credit, they have, generally, not been overly excited about Rodgers' fantasy prospects this season. Obviously, at draft time, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were the leading QBs, but after a few seasons of constantly being ranked among the elite, Rodgers was shuffled back behind Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff and some others this pre-season. With the emergence of Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and others, they have leapfrogged Rodgers on most fantasy experts' rankings. With that said, the Fantasy Judge is disappointed that Rodgers did not receive any significant upgrades against a Raiders team that was coming back after a London trip and which allowed a 7th-worst Net Yards-per-Attempt so far this season.
The typical Latavius Murray ranking was somewhere in the mid-20s. As mentioned above, it's difficult to tell whether experts simply didn't react to the Kamara news, or didn't like Murray's potential, up against Chicago and still with a backup QB and both Tre'Quan Smith and Jared Cook out with ankle injuries. The Judge really doesn't like failures to update rankings, given that the typical fantasy owner is adjusting his or her lineup on Saturday or even Sunday morning, relying on the latest injury reports. But given his matchup and unknowns, the Judge is not penalizing sites who placed him somewhere in the 20's. This actually led to a higher-than-usual number of zero scores, for some sites which were slightly positive on Rodgers yet negative on Murray.