The Judge's Verdict:
football 2020 Week 1
September 16, 2020
CASE SUMMARY:
The Fantasy Judge is happy to be back for 2020. With the cancellation of so many sports leagues and events, the path to fantasy football seemed to be in jeopardy most of the summer. The Judge hopes you, your friends and family, are doing well through the crazy year that is 2020.
Future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers is one of the most popular and well-known players in the NFL. For years he's been a complete fantasy stud, finishing as QB1 4 times (2009, 2011, 2014, 2016) and winning the NFL MVP twice. But after two years of mid-20s TDs (ignoring 2017 where he missed 9 games to injury), plenty of fantasy experts have demoted Rodgers to "middle-of-the-pack" status. As we all know, Green Bay picked another QB with their first-round draft pick rather than upgrade Rodgers's WR corps. It's certainly possible that Rodgers will prove these experts right, that he's more of an average QB these days. But for Week 1 at least, he showed himself to be as dynamic and effective as ever, with 364 yards and 4 TDs, racking up 30.8 fantasy points, in a 43-34 win over Minnesota. Rodgers performance landed him as QB-2, behind only Russell Wilson.
Two big RB surprises were Malcolm Brown of the Rams and Nyheim Hines of the Colts. Hines stepped in after Marlon Mack tore his Achilles heel and will end up on IR. Hines ran the ball 7 times for 28 yards, and caught 8 passes for 45 more. But he had 2 TDs, one running and one receiving, that vaulted him to RB-5. Backmate Jonathan Taylor had 9 runs and 6 catches for 89 total yards, but did not score. Brown's big day was a bit more surprising, as it was not the result of an injury. Cam Akers was the Rams' starting tailback, however Brown was given a larger workload and proved much more effective. Akers ran the ball 14 times for just 39 yards, plus a 4-yard reception, while Brown was 18-for-79 on the ground with 2 TDs, plus 3-for-31 receiving.
Adam Thielen had a pretty awful 2019, losing 6 games to injury and tallying only 418 yards, after 1373 and 1276 the two years prior. Had it not been for 7 TDs, his 2nd-best season total, the year would have been a total disaster. Thus it must have been quite nice for Thielen owners to get off to a terrific start, with 110 yards and 2 TDs, good enough for WR-3. Only Davante Adams and Calvin Ridley outscored Thielen.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Ranked Rodgers 13th among QBs, and Thielen 14th, both mostly in line with consensus
Huddle
The Fantasy Judge 2019 champion! In large part due to taking a stand in opposition to other analysts' "safe" consensus rankings. Unfortunately it bit them in Week 1, as they slid Rodgers all the way down to 28th, even while writing that Minnesota's secondary struggled and had fresh new cornerbacks. They also pointed out Thielen was shutout (0 catches) last year at Green Bay, justifying their #28 ranking. A tough start, but given their in-depth analysis, the Judge is confident the Huddle will bounce back!
PFF
The Judge is excited to welcome a new site, PFF.com. In their first week, their 4 analysts were bullish on Thielen, ranking him 6th, which is the highest ranking he received this week. They were a little less so on Rodgers (17th).
Sharks
The Sharks noted that Rodgers has struggled in the past against Mike Zimmer's defenses, and therefore ranked him 20th. However they ranked Thielen 8th among WRs, better than everyone after PFF and ESPN.
CBS
Their 3 analysts had little love for Rodgers, ranking him as low as 20th (Eisenberg), 19th, and 14th. Thielen was generally closer to consensus, at 13th, 18th, 15th.
ESPN
ESPN's 6 analysts consensus-ranked Rodgers at 14. Impressively, they had Thielen all the way up at 6, tied with PFF for the highest ranking.
HarrisFootball
Another one of our new sites for 2020, Harris is off to a great start! They ranked Rodgers 8th and Thielen 10th. That was the highest ranking Aaron Rodgers received, and one of 5 to place Thielen among the top 10 of WRs. Welcome!
Sharks
Ranked Rodgers 10th, despite calling his 2019 campaign "average". Only Harris and FantasySharks placed Rodgers in their Top 10. Unfortunately, they ranked Thielen 26th, the 2nd-lowest position.
Sixpack
Rodgers was 15th, and Thielen 12th.
FFToday
Ranked Thielen 22nd (one spot below Ridley), and Rodgers 13th.
RotoStreetJournal
Another new site that the Judge is happy to bring on-board! RSJ ranked Rodgers 13th and Thielen 9th.
Fantasy
Last year's runners-up consistently surprised the Judge with bold picks and a willingness to stray from consensus. While we note they continued to have some unusual picks, as far as the Judge's highlighted players this week, Rodgers was ranked 13th and Thielen 20th.
FantasyAlarm
The fourth new site the Judge is reading, and the fourth new site (+ DraftSharks) to place Thielen in their Top 10 (10th). Very impressed with all of our new additions! Rodgers was ranked 17th.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge understands why lots of people are down on Rodgers, why they are doubtful he will ever reach MVP status again. But at least for Week 1, Rodgers proved that some analysts may have been too quick to relegate him to a 2nd or 3rd string fantasy QB. Only two of our rating sites had enough confidence in Rodgers to place him among their Top 10... and given that most leagues only start 1 QB, outside the top 10 is an implied second-stringer. Meanwhile Adam Thielen provided firm proof that his hamstring injury is behind him, that he is definitely back and potentially ready for the best season of his career.
The Judge is also very happy to see that all 4 of the new sites for 2020 -- Harris Football, PFF, Roto Street Journal and Fantasy Alarm -- all got off to a great start, as all of them ranked Thielen in their Top 10, while only 2 of the returning sites did (ESPN and DraftSharks). Additionally, Harris had the highest ranking for Aaron Rodgers. Great job guys!