The Judge's Verdict:
football 2020 Week 2
September 22, 2020
CASE SUMMARY:
Aaron Jones put up the best RB performance of 2019, against Dallas, where he scored 4 times on 19-for-107 rushing and 8-for-75 receiving. This 45.7 point day (1/2 PPR scoring) was one of only 3 40+ games by any RB last year (McCaffrey and Barkley had the others). And now early in 2020, Jones has set the bar high once again. Against Detroit on Sunday, Jones rewarded owners with a monster 43.6 points on 168 rushing yards, 8-68 receiving and 3 total touchdowns. Alvin Kamara had a fantastic night against the Raiders (the Las Vegas Raiders) but was still 10 points behind Jones. Now, Jones is certainly an elite RB, it's unlikely any analysts had him outside their Top 10, but the Judge will investigate where exactly he was ranked.
More surprising was the ascendance of Kareem Hunt. Nobody doubts Hunt's talent but considering he's still the #2 back in Cleveland behind Nick Chubb, he's been mostly overlooked and often considered just a Flex or RB-3. But Hunt out-touched Chubb in Week 1 17 to 11. This Sunday, the Browns didn't push Chubb aside, he was the #3 RB this week with 2 TDs and 124 yards. Hunt, however, was not just watching from the sideline, he also scored twice, gained 86 yards on the ground and 15 receiving. Chubb was 22-for-124 for a 5.6 average, which is great, but Hunt was 10-for-86 for an 8.6 yards-per-carry average. Hunt will likely pose a dilemma for his owners going forward -- he hasn't replaced Chubb as the #1 back, so he is sure to have games with little or no production, but he's also talented enough to put up huge numbers even with limited opportunities as he did Sunday, by far his best performance as a Brown. The Judge will assume no analysts ranked Hunt as a Top 10, but some may have placed him in the teens.
Dak Prescott had the top QB fantasy performance in Dallas's crazy comeback against Atlanta, but the biggest surprise performance this week had to be Cam Newton, who was brilliant Sunday Night against Seattle up until the game's final play. Newton, who nobody except New England wanted, put up 397 yards on 30-44 passing with 1 TD and 1 INT, and also ran 11-47 with 2 TDs. Newton gave us a preview of his ability in Week 1 when he also had 2 rushing touchdowns, and picked up 75 yards that day, starting to develop a pattern as a fantasy threat both with his arm and legs.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
4for4 had a decent week, they ranked Jones 8th a spot or two above average, Hunt 19th, inside the Top 20, one of only 5 sites to do so. They were near the bottom of a relatively tight range on Cam Newton at #12.
Huddle
The Huddle hit a home run with Cam Newton, ranking him 6th, tied for the highest position among all analysts. Unfortunately they weren't as great with RBs, they placed Jones 11th, just outside the Top 10, but they had Hunt all the way down at 29th, which was actually the lowest position. Numerous sites ranked Hunt in the 20s but only The Huddle was most bearish. They didn't really like Chubb too much (because of Hunt's success in Week 1), ranking him 12th.
PFF
PFF had another strong week, ranking Jones 6th (the 3rd-highest rank) and Newton 8th (also the 3rd-highest). They faltered a bit on Kareem Hunt, who they ranked 26th, which was the lowest other than The Huddle.
Sharks
Impressive ranking of Jones at RB-4, only one site ranked him higher. Their Hunt rank was mid-pack at 22nd, while they had Cam Newton outside of QB-1 status at #12.
CBS
CBS's analysts ranked Newton 11th, 12th and 16th (Dave Richard had him 16th), in aggregate this was the lowest ranking of any site. They performed better with the running backs, with Jones at 8th, 8th, 6th (Richard the outlier again). Interestingly, they had Hunt at 18 and 22 but Heath Cummings ranked him 10th, much higher than anybody else (And ahead of his ranking of Chubb). The aggregate rank of 17th was 2nd best among all sites.
ESPN
The Judge records the site rankings as late as possible to give analysts an opportunity to react to late news or injuries. Usually this means Saturdays. It seems ESPN sometimes removes the players who already completed the week's the Thursday night game from their lists, this week Hunt was not ranked because of this reason. ESPN consensus had Jones 8th, and Newton 10th.
HarrisFootball
Harris was one of just 4 sites to rank Kareem Hunt inside their Top 20, at 19. They had Jones 9th and Newton 11th.
Sharks
Fantasy Sharks wasn't afraid to put Cam Newton in their Top 10, ranking him 9th. They had Jones at 13 which was actually the 2nd-lowest rank, and Hunt at 23rd.
Sixpack
Sixpack had Jones 9th, Newton 12th, and Hunt at 20th.
FFToday
FFtoday was just like The Huddle, both sites had Cam Newton at 6th, the highest position of all the sites. But they were off on the running backs, placing Jones 14th (lowest of all sites) and Hunt 26th (2nd-lowest ranking).
RotoStJournal
RSJ liked Aaron Jones, ranking him 8th. Their placements of Hunt and Newton were more mid-pack, at 21 (Hunt) and 11 (Newton).
Fantasy
Fulltime Fantasy had a few bold calls last year which really impressed the Judge, they were not afraid to go way out on a limb to place a player significantly higher than anyone else. It didn't take long for them to repeat this in 2020, as they ranked Aaron Jones the #2 RB this week. Perhaps more impressively, they also had Kareem Hunt at #15, higher than any other analysts, but they were also the only site to rank Hunt higher than teammate Nick Chubb. Really impressive predictions, certainly the best this week. They also had Cam Newton 8th.
FantasyAlarm
Fantasy Alarm had no standout picks this week -- Jones 12th, Hunt 22nd, Newton 10th.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge expected to see Jones in the Top 10 (RB-1 position) at just about all sites, in actuality 4 sites had him lower than 10. To put him in the Top 5, a site would have to take out at least one of McCaffrey, Elliott, Barkley, Kamara, Henry, maybe Edwards-Helaire or Cook or Jacobs. Only 2 sites had him that high (Fulltime at #2 and DraftSharks at #4), showing that these sites had the guts and the foresight to shuffle their elite RBs. Fulltime's top 5 was Henry, Jones, Kamara, Elliott, McCaffrey while DraftSharks' Top 5 went Elliott, Henry, Kamara, Jones and McCaffrey -- both sites dropped Barkley to 7th, and obviously, due to his unfortunate ACL injury, we won't know where he would have finished the game.
As expected, most sites still assumed Chubb was the Browns top RB, but a few still expected solid production from Hunt, and Fulltime (and CBS's Heath Cummings) ranked him ahead of Chubb. From an owner's perspective, there's a huge difference in a mid-teens ranking (good RB-2) and mid-20s (possible Flex) so the sites that were bullish on him deserve quite a bit of credit.
Finally, Cam Newton was in a tight range of rankings, which isn't all that unusual for QBs, but small differences are even more significant because most owners can only start one. So QB-8 is usually a start while QB-12 is often a sit, in favor of the owner's other quarterback. The Huddle and FFToday had him at QB-6 which is very impressive, with PFF and Fulltime not far behind at 8.