The Judge's Verdict:
football 2020 Week 4
October 6, 2020
CASE SUMMARY:
This was a really enjoyable week for The Judge. Some weeks, there aren't many huge days from mid-tier players, and worse, there are a lot of weeks where there isn't much separation between analysts. This week, however, we did had some breakout performances, and what is exciting is that some forecasters saw the big days coming while others missed out completely.
Tom Brady moving to Tampa Bay has obviously been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season. There's a great deal of interest in how the Buccaneers perform as a team, but also Brady's personal ability to put of points and big stat lines at age 43. After a 2-1 start with some decent statistical performances, Tom Brady had his breakout day in a 38-31 win over the LA Chargers. Brady threw for 369 yards and 5 touchdowns, all to different receivers. Brady threw a 78-yard pick-6 in the 1st quarter but didn't allow that to affect him negatively the rest of the way. Dak Prescott was the top fantasy QB with 502 yards, but Brady was #2 with 32.5 points.
Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon hadn't been able to get into the end zone this year, and had only 164 yards rushing despite high-teens carries in every game. He's the Bengals "bell-cow" back, it's not like he is splitting carries with someone else, Gio Bernard has only 2 rushes. In Sunday's win against Jacksonville, however, he made up for lost time, with a huge 151 yards rushing + 2 TDs, and another 30 yards and a TD receiving. Mixon's 39 points was the second-best RB day of the season so far.
Melvin Gordon has been a bit of a question mark since leaving the Chargers for Denver this year. He started the season with a TD in each of his first 2 games, and looked to be a big part of the offesnse with Phillip Lindsay out, but in Week 3 Gordon was held to just 38 total yards and no scores. However this week against the Jets, Gordon had his best fantasy game since 2018, rushing for 107 yards and scoring twice. Gordon's 25 point day was 3rd best among RBs, behind an absolute monster day seemingly out of nowhere from Joe Mixon (181 total yards, 3 TD) and Dalvin Cook (146 total yards, 2 TDs).
Switching over to wide receivers, Odell Beckham Jr. put up the best fantasy performance by any WR this year with 36 points, it was also his best game as a Cleveland Brown by far, and his best fantasy day since 2016, with 5 catches for 81 yards and 2 TDs, plus 2 rushes for 73 yards and another score. According to RotoBaller, NFL's Next Gen Stats measured OBJ's max running speed higher this Sunday than any time in the past 3 seasons, so any questions about his health should be answered.
On the same field as Beckham was Dallas's Amari Cooper, who placed 2nd among WRs, benefitting from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' latest comeback attempt, this time against Cleveland. Cooper scooped up 12 catches for 134 yards and a TD. Cooper's production is way up, he has 37 receptions in the 4 games this year, the same as he had in 2019's final 8 games. This was his first TD of 2020 however.
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 20 - Gordon: 14 - Beckham: 18 - Cooper: 7
Huddle
Brady: 17 - Mixon: 26 - Gordon: 13 - Beckham: 13 - Cooper: 1
The Huddle had its second strong week in a row, and by far its best prediction was to rank Amari Cooper as the #1 WR for the week. Cooper is certainly talented but so are DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Julio Jones, etc. Most of our analysts placed Cooper among their Top 10 but only The Huddle ranked him #1. They also ranked Odell Beckham 13th, well above the average which was right around 19 or 20th. Only two sites ranked Beckham higher. Third, they ranked Gordon at RB-13, which also was a few spots above the average, and the 2nd-highest ranking. The Huddle's only blind spot this week was on Joe Mixon, who they ranked 26th, lower than any other site.
PFF.com
Brady: 14 - Mixon: 10 - Gordon: 15 - Beckham: 18 - Cooper: 4
PFF's highlight this week was a great call on Joe Mixon, ranking him 10th among RB's, tied for the highest ranking. Taking a big risk and elevating Mixon into RB1 territory paid off big. They also ranked Cooper at 4, the 3rd-highest ranking, and Melvin Gordon at 15th.
Sharks
Brady: 15 - Mixon: 10 - Gordon: 21 - Beckham: 16 - Cooper: 10
Just like PFF, DraftSharks gambled on Joe Mixon, placing him at #10, and was rewarded with a huge payoff. No other site placed him higher, and some had him down in the mid-20s. DraftSharks also ranked OBJ at #16. On the downside, they were one of only two sites to rank Gordon outside the Top 20.
CBS
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 19 - Gordon: 15 - Beckham: 20 - Cooper: 6
ESPN
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 11 - Gordon: x - Beckham: 22 - Cooper: 16
Note that as in previous weeks, ESPN does not rank (or removes) players who participated in the week's Thursday night game. This week that was Melvin Gordon. They did rank Mixon 11th, just one spot below PFF and DraftSharks. Notably, Field Yates ranked him 8th, while Matthew Berry was the dissenter of the group, ranking him 17th
HarrisFootball
Brady: 12 - Mixon: 18 - Gordon: 16 - Beckham: 12 - Cooper: 9
Harris had a good week also, it was one of two sites to rank Tom Brady at #12. Only one other site (Fulltime) had him higher, while 9 had him at #15 or lower. An even better prediction was to rank OBJ at 12, higher than any other site but one.
Sharks
Brady: 12 - Mixon: 21 - Gordon: 12 - Beckham: 42 - Cooper: 18
Like usual, FantasySharks had some great predictions mixed in with some head-scratchers. They ranked Gordon #12, the highest placement among all sites. They also ranked Brady at 12, tied with Harris for the second-highest. On the flip side, they ranked Beckham at 42nd a full 20 spots below anyone else. They also had Gordon at 18, also the lowest rank. Finally they missed on Mixon as well, placing him 21st, although this wasn't the lowest.
Sixpack
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 13 - Gordon: 17 - Beckham: 16 - Cooper: 7
The Sixpack scoreed points by ranking Joe Mixon 13th, a few spots above the average, and also with positive rankings on both Beckham and Cooper.
FFToday
Brady: 17 - Mixon: 25 - Gordon: 17 - Beckham: 9 - Cooper: 2
FFToday's rankings were similar to The Huddle's. Their best call by far was ranking Odell Beckham Jr the 9th WR, which was 4 spots above any other site and the only site to rank him within their Top 10. Additionally, they ranked Cooper #2 WR. Both of these rankings were gambles and elevations above more established players, but FFToday deserves a ton of credit for seeing the opportunities for big points for both receivers in the Dallas-Cleveland shootout. Also like The Huddle, FFToday whiffed on Joe Mixon, placing him 25th.
RotoStreetJournal
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 21 - Gordon: 15 - Beckham: 21 - Cooper: 9
Fantasy
Brady: 10 - Mixon: 20 - Gordon: 26 - Beckham: 22 - Cooper: 6
Fulltime's best prediction this week was on Brady, they were the only site to rank him in the Top 10 (at 10th). QBs are bunched up much more than other positions, so while the best and worst rankings for Amari Cooper were 17 spots apart, and for Mixon 16 spots, top to bottom on Brady was only 7 spots (10th, 17th), making a 2-spot gap between Fulltime and 2nd place more significant than it looks. Unfortunately Fulltime missed on this week's start RBs, ranking Gordon 26th, which was the lowest rank by 5 spots, and also had Mixon 20th, not the lowest but below average.
FantasyAlarm
Brady: 16 - Mixon: 15 - Gordon: 13 - Beckham: 16 - Cooper: 8
The Alarm's best selection this week was Gordon, who they ranked 13th, tied with The Huddle for 2nd place, one behind FantasySharks. They also were above-average on Mixon and Beckham.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
The Judge started off by saying this was a fun week, and the divergence of opinion, having some amazing predictions and some misses is what makes this exciting. Dalvin Cook had a fantastic week as well, he was the #2 RB, 3 points better than Melvin Gordon, but analyzing his placement is meaningless and boring because every single site ranked him as a must-start RB1 at #6 or above (all but 3 at #4 or above). There was one exception but Cook wasn't our focus this week so that site gets a free pass. Checking out the large gaps in opinion on guys like Beckham or Mixon, having a feeling a breakout week is imminent and trying to time it correctly, is the enjoyment of fnatasy football and very happy that we had a week where some of our analysts made incredibly timely and gutsy calls that hit the jackpot for fantasy owners who followed their advice.