The Judge's Verdict:
football 2020 Week 5
October 12, 2020
CASE SUMMARY:
Carolina RB Mike Davis has shown to be a capable replacement while Christian McCaffrey's ankle heals. He scored in each of his games so far, and like McCaffrey, he's a threat to run and to catch passes. Carolina's Week 5 win over Atlanta was Davis's best game yet, collecting a combined 149 yards, 9 catches and a TD. His 25 points (half-PPR) led all running backs for the week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been reasonably consistent, fantasy-wise, for the past few weeks, scoring between 21 and 25 points in each of weeks 2, 3 and 4, although the way he scored those points varied. This week against the 49er defense, however, he had everything going right, racking up 350 yards and 3 TDs. His Quarterback Rating of 154.5 for the game was the highest by any QB in the NFL this year, and his 27.6 fantasy points were 2nd in the league this week, behind only Patrick Mahomes.
(Note this week's writeup was written Monday Oct 12 before the NO-LAC and BUF-TEN)
DEFENDANT TESTIMONY:
4for4
Middle of the road, they ranked Davis at #10 RB and Fitzpatrick as #21 QB.
Huddle
Showed again why they were the 2019 champions. Along with FFToday, they were spot-on with both players this week. The Huddle ranked Mike Davis at
PFF.com
They ranked Davis lower than any other site, at #17 RB. Fitzpatrick was at 22.
Sharks
Davis - 9, Fitzpatrick - 22
CBS
The CBS guys were bullish in Davis, ranking him 5th, 5th and 3rd (Heath Cummings). The average ranking for Fitzpatrick was 18th (15-17-22), a little better than the low-20's that most sites placed him.
ESPN
ESPN's consensus has Davis at RB-9, although 2 analysts (Berry and Clay) had him as high at #6. Fitzpatrick was #22, and no individual analyst had him above #19.
HarrisFootball
Davis - 10, Fitzpatrick - 24
Sharks
The Sharks liked Fitzpatrick, placing him 13th. Unfortunately they also placed Davis 13th, which was the second-lowest rank.
Sixpack
Davis - 10, Fitzpatrick - 20
FFToday
Along with The Huddle, FFToday had the best week of all our analysts. They also ranked Fitzpatrick at QB-12, same as The Huddle, and they ranked Davis at RB-5, just one spot below The Huddle (and also CBS).
RotoStreetJournal
Davis - 12, Fitzpatrick - 21
Fantasy
Fulltime was high on Davis and ranked him 5th among RBs, the highest ranking other than The Huddle and CBS. However they placed Fitzpatrick all the way down at 29, lower than any other analyst. He was ranked in the mid-20's by most analysts, not likely to be a starter anyway. There's not a whole lot of difference between QB-22 and QB-29 but The Judge can't ignore a negative outlier such as this.
FantasyAlarm
Ranked Davis at #8 RB, which was the 5th-highest placement. Fitzpatrick was at #21.
(read more about the fantasy football experts here)
VERDICT ANALYSIS:
Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly not a "sexy" starting QB, he has firmly established himself at age 38 to be a middle-of-the-road starter. However as The Judge noted, he's been consistently "good" from a fantasy perspective all year, currently 8th in average points among QBs this season. He's unlikely to explode for massive upside but certainly deserves to be well above the 18-23 range that most sites have ranked him. Possibly some sites were concerned about playing against the San Francisco defense, but the Niners' points-against is mid-pack, certainly not elite. Fitzpatrick remains a concern to keep on a roster due to the fear that Tua Tagovailoa may be named the starter. But on a week-by-week basis, as long as the Dolphins continue announcing Fitzpatrick the team's starter, he should be getting a bit more respect.
Mike Davis has started to get serious respect among some analysts, getting ranked within the Top 5, while some other sites remain holdouts, plaing him outside their Top 10. After his performance this week, however, it's tough to imagine many sites continuing to hold off from making Davis a must-start.